8.24 AI Daily Report Global Financial Situation Changes: War Easing, AI Development and Monetary Policy Adjustments

1. Headlines

1. The Trump-Putin summit sends a signal of peace, and the dawn of relief in the Ukraine war is gradually appearing.

At the Trump-Putin summit held in Alaska, the two leaders engaged in an in-depth dialogue regarding the Ukraine war. After the talks, both sides issued a joint statement pledging to continue seeking a peaceful resolution through diplomatic means. This signal releases a glimmer of hope that the war may ease.

The statement points out that both parties agree to implement a comprehensive ceasefire in the eastern region of Ukraine and gradually withdraw troops under the supervision of the United Nations. At the same time, a working group composed of representatives from all parties will be established to negotiate the future status of Ukraine and Russia's security concerns. This paves the way for ending the long-standing conflict.

Analysts believe that the meeting between Trump and Putin reflects both sides' demand for compromise on the Ukraine issue. The Russian side has gained security guarantees, while the American side has avoided further escalation of confrontation. Although peace negotiations are difficult and tortuous, they are much less costly than the losses brought about by a prolonged war.

The easing of the situation in Ukraine will benefit the revitalization of global economic confidence and alleviate the energy and food crisis. However, it is also necessary to remain vigilant against the possibility of Russia taking similar actions against other countries in the future. Overall, this summit has brought hope for a political solution to the Ukraine issue.

2. The artificial intelligence bubble raises regulatory concerns, experts call for strengthened governance.

The rapid development of artificial intelligence ( AI ) technology in recent times has raised concerns at the regulatory level. Some experts warn that an AI bubble is forming, which could pose serious economic and social risks if proper governance is lacking.

The breakthroughs in AI technology are mainly reflected in areas such as large language models and image generation. AI tools like ChatGPT and Midjourney showcase astonishing capabilities, attracting public enthusiasm and investor frenzy. However, they also expose the uncertainty and opacity of AI systems.

Some tech giants and startups are burning money frantically in the AI field, increasing the risk of a bubble. Analysts point out that the valuations of AI companies have severely deviated from their actual value and lack sustainable business models. Once the bubble bursts, it will deal a heavy blow to the entire tech industry.

At the same time, AI technology also poses potential risks in terms of privacy, security, and ethics. Some experts are calling for governments and the industry to strengthen AI governance, formulate relevant regulations, and ensure the controllability and interpretability of AI. Otherwise, the collapse of the AI bubble will bring unpredictable consequences.

In general, the development of AI needs to be viewed rationally, encouraging innovation while also strengthening regulation, promoting economic development while ensuring social fairness and justice.

3. The Federal Reserve releases dovish signals, and global market reactions vary.

At the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech sent dovish signals, suggesting a slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes. This signal triggered different reactions in global markets.

Powell stated that the Federal Reserve will adjust its monetary policy in a timely manner based on economic data, and the pace and magnitude of future interest rate hikes may slow down. He believes that the current job market is weak, inflationary pressures have eased, and it is necessary to balance the risks posed by rate hikes.

This statement was interpreted by the market as a dovish shift, leading to an increase in both the US stock and cryptocurrency markets. Investors generally expect that the Federal Reserve will begin its rate cut cycle later this year.

However, some analysts are cautious about Powell's dovish signals. They point out that inflation remains severe, and there is also uncertainty in the employment market data. Excessively loose monetary policy could cause inflation to spiral out of control again.

In addition, the central banks of other major economies have a more hawkish stance. Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England insist on continuing to raise interest rates to curb rising inflation. The divergence in global monetary policy may exacerbate volatility in financial markets.

Overall, the Federal Reserve's fine-tuning policy stance reflects the current complex economic situation. The future direction still needs to be further observed through data to determine the appropriate monetary policy direction.

4. Intel acquires 10% stake from the US government, changes in semiconductor industry policy.

According to U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo, the U.S. government has acquired a 10% stake in Intel Corporation. This is seen as an important move to revitalize the domestic semiconductor industry.

According to the agreement reached by both parties, the U.S. government is providing $39 billion in funding in exchange for a 10% stake in Intel. This funding will be used for Intel's construction of advanced chip factories within the United States.

Analysts believe that this move is aimed at enhancing the competitiveness of the United States in the semiconductor field and reducing dependence on overseas supplies. In the context of the technological confrontation between China and the United States, ensuring the security of the chip supply chain is crucial for the United States.

However, this move has also raised some concerns. Some people question whether the government's intervention in business decision-making is reasonable, fearing it may distort market mechanisms. Others argue that excessive protectionism may exacerbate global technological divisions.

At the same time, other technology giants are actively expanding their chip businesses. Companies like TSMC and Samsung plan to invest billions of dollars in building factories in the United States. The global semiconductor landscape is being reshaped, and future competition will be even more intense.

Overall, Intel's collaboration with the U.S. government marks a significant shift in U.S. semiconductor industry policy, and its impact will be long-lasting, warranting continued attention.

5. Japan plans to relax cryptocurrency tax policies to attract industry development.

The Japanese government is planning to relax its tax policies on cryptocurrencies to attract more cryptocurrency companies to develop locally. This initiative aims to enhance Japan's competitiveness in the global cryptocurrency industry.

It is reported that the Financial Services Agency of Japan will officially propose a tax reform plan at the end of August. The main content includes taxing cryptocurrency gains separately at a unified tax rate of 20%, and allowing losses to be carried forward for three years. Currently, cryptocurrency gains are considered "miscellaneous income," with a maximum tax rate of 55%.

In addition, Japan will launch cryptocurrency ETFs and include cryptocurrencies under financial regulation, considering them as a "financial product." This will provide more compliant channels for cryptocurrency investment.

Analysts believe that Japan's series of measures will create a more friendly environment for the cryptocurrency industry. Reasonable tax policies and regulatory frameworks are conducive to attracting domestic and foreign companies to conduct business in Japan, promoting healthy development of the industry.

However, there are also opinions pointing out that Japan's regulatory direction still needs to be clarified and needs to align with international standards. At the same time, the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investors should remain cautious.

Overall, Japan is striving to secure a place in the cryptocurrency sector. Easing tax policies is just a start; more policy support will be needed in the future to truly achieve the industry's take-off.

2. Industry News

1. Bitcoin's market share has dropped to 58.23%, a new low since January this year.

The Bitcoin market share (BTC.D) has decreased by 2.35% over the past week, currently reported at 58.23%, marking a new low since January of this year. During the same period, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has increased by 0.24% over the past week, while the total market capitalization excluding Bitcoin (TOTAL 2) has risen by 3.69%, and the total market capitalization excluding both Bitcoin and Ethereum (TOTAL 3) has increased by 1.48%.

The decline in Bitcoin's market share reflects that investors are shifting their funds towards other cryptocurrencies. The surge in altcoins may stem from investors' optimism about emerging projects and concerns over Bitcoin's lack of breakthrough performance in the short term. However, Bitcoin's leading position in the cryptocurrency space remains solid, and its price movement will still have a significant impact on the entire market.

Analysts believe that the decline in Bitcoin's market share may be a short-term phenomenon. As institutional investors continue to flood into the crypto market, Bitcoin, as the most mature and liquid asset, will still attract a large amount of capital. However, the rise of other cryptocurrencies also means that investors have more choices, and the market landscape may change in the future.

2. Ethereum capital outflows and dominance signals a significant market shift

In the past 48 hours, over 200,000 Ethereum have left the exchange, indicating strong buying interest and low selling pressure. Analysts believe that a potential supply squeeze will drive Ethereum towards a stronger rebound towards historical highs.

Ethereum's market share is 14.59%. If the resistance level of 15.38% is breached, it could rise to 20-22%. The reduction in supply on exchanges indicates that long-term holders are accumulating, as the price stabilizes above $3,500.

The continuous development and innovation of the Ethereum ecosystem have driven demand for this asset among investors. Ethereum, as the infrastructure for smart contracts and DeFi, is of undeniable importance. As more applications and protocols are deployed on the Ethereum network, its value will continue to increase.

However, Ethereum also faces challenges such as scalability and high transaction fees. Whether the launch of Ethereum 2.0 can solve these issues will determine its future development path. At the same time, other public chains are also continuously developing, bringing certain competitive pressure to Ethereum.

3. Cryptocurrency Focus: Recent Developments of 5 Coins Driving Market Momentum

The rise in altcoin prices this week reflects investor interest driven by market adoption and technological innovation. Network upgrades and protocol enhancements are directly related to trading activity and ecosystem growth. Emerging alternative coins demonstrate profit potential, even in the broader market.

Solana surged 13% in 24 hours, reaching $207.10, close to the resistance level of $207.21, with strong support at $177.77. Solana's Bonding Curve mechanism and the upcoming Saga phone are expected to further drive its price up.

Chainlink's native token LINK is also displaying a short-term bullish pattern, accompanied by an increase in trading volume. LINK's oracle services are crucial to the DeFi ecosystem, and the demand for them may drive up the price.

Aptos performed strongly in the past week, with both trading volume and TVL increasing. As an emerging Layer 1 blockchain, Aptos's scalability and high throughput have attracted the attention of developers.

Sui has also shown a similar upward trend, with its TVL increasing by over 30% within a week. The advantages of Sui's Move virtual machine and parallel execution are expected to drive its applications in the GameFi and DeFi sectors.

Maple has increased by 4.06% in the past 24 hours, driven by demand from its unsecured lending protocol and institutional lending services.

Overall, the performance of these tokens reflects the vitality of the cryptocurrency market. Technological innovation and ecosystem development are key factors driving price increases. However, investors should also be wary of potential risks and invest cautiously.

4. The surge in discussions about Federal Reserve interest rates may pose a dangerous signal for the crypto market.

Santiment reported on Saturday that discussions on social media surged around the highly anticipated Federal Reserve's September interest rate decision, which could be a warning signal for cryptocurrencies.

"Historically, a surge in discussions around a single bullish narrative may indicate that the market is overly optimistic and could signal a local top." Santiment noted that mentions of keywords related to the Federal Reserve and interest rate cuts on social media have risen to the highest level in 11 months.

The cryptocurrency market has always been highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions will directly impact the performance of risk assets. If the Federal Reserve hints at slowing down the pace of interest rate hikes, it could drive cryptocurrency prices up. Conversely, if the rate hikes exceed expectations, it could trigger a sell-off.

However, excessive optimism can also bring risks. If the market is overly optimistic about interest rate cuts, any deviation of the Federal Reserve's actual actions from expectations could trigger a sharp adjustment.

Therefore, investors need to remain cautious and closely monitor the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and their impact on the market. They should also pay attention to changes in sentiment on social media to avoid being influenced by overly optimistic expectations.

Overall, the cryptocurrency market is still in a relatively early stage and is highly sensitive to the macroeconomic situation. Investors need to comprehensively assess risks and rationally view market expectations to avoid falling into irrational exuberance.

5. Japan plans to impose a 20% uniform tax on cryptocurrency transactions and promote the issuance of ETFs through tax law amendments.

According to reports, the Japanese Financial Services Agency plans to review the handling of cryptocurrency transactions for the fiscal year 2026, and intends to reference the treatment of listed stocks. This request will be formally submitted at the end of August and includes transferring cryptocurrency gains to a separate tax category, subject to a unified tax rate of 20%.

Currently, cryptocurrency income is considered "miscellaneous income" in Japan, with a progressive tax rate that can go up to 55%, excluding local taxes. The proposal from the Financial Services Agency of Japan will also facilitate domestic cryptocurrency ETFs for Japanese companies, in order to enhance the competitiveness of Japan's cryptocurrency industry.

In addition to tax reforms, the Financial Authority also plans to draft a legislative bill in 2026 to incorporate cryptocurrencies into the "Financial Instruments and Trading Act" as a "financial product" rather than a "means of payment" regulated by the "Payment Services Act".

This series of measures aims to create a more friendly regulatory environment for the Japanese cryptocurrency industry, attracting more investors and businesses. The unified 20% tax rate will alleviate the tax burden on investors, while the launch of cryptocurrency ETFs will provide more options for investors.

However, some people are concerned that overly loose regulations may pose risks. The cryptocurrency market still lacks a mature regulatory framework, and investors need to remain cautious.

Overall, this series of measures in Japan reflects the increasing mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrency. With the improvement of the regulatory environment, the cryptocurrency market is expected to attract more capital inflows, driving further development of the industry.

3. Project News

1. Sui Network: The Rise of a New Star in the Move Ecosystem

Sui Network is a brand new blockchain project developed by Mysten Labs, aimed at providing high-performance and low-cost infrastructure for Web3 applications. The project is built on the Move programming language, which is a secure and resource-efficient language originally developed by Meta.

Latest Update: Sui Network officially launched its mainnet in May this year and gained significant attention at the TOKEN2049 conference in mid-August. During the conference, the price of Sui tokens saw a substantial increase, sparking widespread discussion in the market. The Sui team also announced a partnership with Grayscale Trust to launch the USDC stablecoin on the Sui chain.

The innovation of Sui lies in its adoption of a brand new blockchain architecture design, achieving high throughput and low latency through technologies such as parallel execution and dynamic sharding. In addition, Sui has introduced a new type of ownership model aimed at enhancing the composability and interoperability of assets.

Market Impact: As a rising star project in the Move ecosystem, the emergence of Sui provides blockchain developers with a brand new option. With its high performance and innovative design, Sui is expected to attract more developers and projects into the Move ecosystem, promoting the overall development of the ecosystem. Meanwhile, Sui's collaboration with Grayscale Trust is also expected to bring more liquidity and users.

Industry feedback: Analysts generally believe that Sui represents a new direction for blockchain technology, and its innovative design is expected to address some of the pain points currently faced by blockchains. However, there are also concerns about the sustainability of Sui as a new project. Overall, the industry holds a cautiously optimistic view of Sui's prospects.

2. Aptos: A high-performance blockchain built by Meta engineers.

Aptos is an emerging blockchain project created by former engineers from Meta, aimed at providing high-performance, secure, and scalable infrastructure. The project utilizes the Move programming language and introduces several innovative technologies to enhance throughput and scalability.

Latest Update: Aptos officially launched its testnet in March this year and made significant announcements at the TOKEN2049 conference in mid-August. The Aptos team announced that the mainnet will be launched in the fourth quarter of this year, with plans to release governance tokens shortly after the mainnet goes live.

Aptos's core innovation lies in the adoption of a new consensus mechanism called "Block STM," which enables high throughput and low latency. Additionally, Aptos has introduced a new type of data model aimed at improving resource utilization efficiency and scalability.

Market Impact: As another heavyweight project in the Move ecosystem, the emergence of Aptos will undoubtedly further promote the development of the Move ecosystem. With its high performance and innovative design, Aptos is expected to attract more developers and projects to join the Move camp, injecting new vitality into the entire ecosystem.

Industry feedback: Industry insiders generally believe that the Aptos team has rich blockchain experience and technical strength, and its innovative design is worth paying attention to. However, some are concerned whether Aptos can deliver on its promises in terms of performance and security. Overall, the market holds an open and expectant attitude towards the prospects of Aptos.

3. LayerZero: A New Choice for Cross-Chain Bridges

LayerZero is a project focused on cross-chain interoperability, aiming to provide a secure and efficient communication bridge between different blockchains. The project employs an innovative "trust-minimized" design, which allows for cross-chain asset transfers without relying on centralized entities.

Latest update: The LayerZero team recently announced that they will acquire another cross-chain bridge project, StarGate, for $1.1 billion. This acquisition will position LayerZero as one of the leading cross-chain interoperability solutions.

LayerZero's innovation lies in the adoption of a new consensus mechanism called "UltraMerge", which enables cross-chain communication without relying on any trust assumptions. Additionally, LayerZero supports various different blockchains, including Ethereum, BNB Chain, Avalanche, and more.

Market Impact: With the continuous development of the blockchain ecosystem, cross-chain interoperability has become an increasingly important topic. LayerZero, as an innovative cross-chain bridging solution, is expected to provide a more secure and efficient way for asset transfer and data exchange between different blockchains.

Industry feedback: Industry insiders generally believe that LayerZero's "trust minimization" design is an important innovation that can effectively address the security risks faced by current cross-chain bridges. However, some are concerned whether LayerZero's performance and scalability can meet future demands. Overall, the market holds an open and optimistic attitude towards LayerZero's prospects.

4. Hyperbolic: The combination of AI and blockchain

Hyperbolic is an innovative project that combines artificial intelligence with blockchain technology. The project aims to leverage AI technology to optimize the performance and efficiency of blockchain, while also exploring other application scenarios of AI in the blockchain field.

Latest news: The Hyperbolic team recently announced the completion of a $25 million funding round, led by well-known investment firms Andreessen Horowitz and Polychain Capital. This funding will be used to accelerate the development and promotion of the project.

The innovation of Hyperbolic lies in the combination of AI technology and blockchain. The project utilizes AI algorithms to optimize aspects such as the consensus mechanism, transaction processing, and resource allocation of blockchain, aiming to improve the performance and efficiency of blockchain. In addition, Hyperbolic also explores other application scenarios of AI in the blockchain field, such as smart contract optimization and anti-fraud.

Market Impact: With the continuous development of artificial intelligence technology, the combination of AI and blockchain has become an emerging trend. Hyperbolic, as a pioneer in this field, is expected to bring new development opportunities and transformations to blockchain through its innovative design and application exploration.

Industry Feedback: Industry insiders generally believe that Hyperbolic's innovative concepts are worth关注 and期待. However, some are concerned whether the application of AI technology in the blockchain field can truly bring about substantial improvements. Overall, the market holds an open and cautiously optimistic attitude towards Hyperbolic's prospects.

4. Economic Dynamics

1. Powell's dovish speech releases signals for interest rate cuts, and the Federal Reserve's policy stance may shift.

Economic Background: The US economy has experienced the impact of high inflation and interest rate hikes over the past year. The latest data shows that the inflation rate has been above the target level of 2% for 53 consecutive months, while the unemployment rate remains low at 3.5%. Nevertheless, signs of economic slowdown are increasingly evident, with a year-on-year decline of 0.6% in GDP for the second quarter.

Important Events: At the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting on August 22, 2025, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a speech, signaling a clear shift towards dovishness. He stated that the balance of economic risks has changed, borrowing costs are weighing on the economy, and inflation risks are controllable, suggesting a high probability of interest rate cuts in September. This stands in stark contrast to the previous hawkish stance.

Market Reaction: After Powell's speech, U.S. stocks soared, with the Dow rising nearly 850 points and the S&P 500 index approaching an all-time high. Treasury yields fell, reflecting the market's optimistic expectations for economic stimulus from interest rate cuts. Investors expect the Federal Reserve to start its rate cut cycle in September, with a potential 2-3 cuts throughout the year.

Expert Opinion: Goldman Sachs analysts believe that if the August non-farm payroll data is weak, it will help determine a rate cut in September. Goldman Sachs expects that regardless of whether the economy slows or normalizes, the Federal Reserve is likely to end this round of rate cuts before the first half of 2026. Cathay Pacific Securities predicts a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a maximum of two rate cuts throughout the year.

2. China's economic data is mixed, facing challenges for policy adjustments.

Economic Background: China's GDP in the second quarter grew by 6.3% year-on-year, in line with expectations, but down from 4.5% in the first quarter. Industrial production and investment data were weak, while consumption data performed better. Inflationary pressures eased somewhat, with July's CPI rising by 2.7% year-on-year, and PPI remaining flat.

Important Event: The Chinese government has recently introduced a series of policies, including lowering reserve requirements and interest rates, as well as issuing special government bonds, aimed at stabilizing growth and preventing risks. However, the effectiveness of these policies remains to be observed, as the downward pressure on the economy continues. At the same time, local government debt risks are escalating, and the real estate market is sluggish.

Market Reaction: Investors have divergent views on the outlook for the Chinese economy. On one hand, increased policy力度 has boosted confidence; on the other hand, risks in the real estate sector and inflationary pressures are concerning. The RMB exchange rate has fluctuated slightly, with the offshore market briefly falling below the 7.2 mark. The stock market has performed modestly, with the Shanghai Composite Index down nearly 3% for the month.

Expert Opinion: CICC believes that the current policy focus is on stabilizing the economy, but it is necessary to balance the relationship between growth and inflation. In the future, there may be a moderate tightening of monetary policy while maintaining a moderate expansion of fiscal policy. Goldman Sachs warns that local government debt risks may become the next "gray rhino" event.

5. Regulation & Policy

1. The Japanese Financial Services Agency plans to reduce the cryptocurrency tax rate to 20% and include it in financial regulations.

The Japanese Financial Services Agency has proposed to unify the cryptocurrency capital gains tax rate from a maximum of 55% to 20% and to bring cryptocurrencies under the management of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. This move aims to promote the development of the local cryptocurrency industry and attract talent and capital.

The proposal will be officially presented at the end of August. In addition to tax reform, the Ministry of Finance also plans to draft a legislative bill in 2026 that defines cryptocurrencies as "financial products" rather than the current "means of payment." This means that cryptocurrencies will be subject to the same regulations as traditional financial products such as stocks.

Currently, cryptocurrency income in Japan is considered "miscellaneous income", subject to progressive tax rates and excluding local taxes. High tax rates and regulatory uncertainty have been major factors hindering the development of the cryptocurrency industry in Japan. Industry insiders generally welcome this move, believing it will help attract more investors and businesses into the field.

The president of the Japan Cryptocurrency Exchange Association, Jun Kakukawa, stated: "Incorporating cryptocurrencies into the financial regulatory framework is a step in the right direction. This will provide greater protection for investors while also creating a more favorable environment for industry development."

2. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority expands the regulation scope of crypto assets

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority recently announced that it will fully implement new capital requirements for crypto asset banks based on the standards of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision in Hong Kong starting from January 1, 2026.

According to the new regulations, crypto assets refer to "digital assets" that primarily rely on cryptography and distributed ledger technology, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, stablecoins, etc. Unlike the definition provided by the Basel Committee, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has removed the term "private," thus expanding the scope of regulation.

This move aims to strengthen the regulation of banks' risks related to cryptocurrency assets and prevent systemic risks. According to the new regulations, cryptocurrency assets held by banks will be included in the calculation of risk-weighted assets, requiring the allocation of more capital.

Industry insiders have different views on this move. Supporters believe that clear regulation helps mitigate risks and creates a favorable environment for the development of crypto assets in Hong Kong; opponents worry that excessive regulation could stifle innovation and affect Hong Kong's status as a financial center.

Hong Kong's Chief FinTech Officer, Chen Jialiu, stated: "We need to seek a balance between risk regulation and innovative development. The new regulations aim to create conditions for the healthy development of crypto assets in Hong Kong, rather than a complete ban."

3. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish speech triggers expectations for interest rate cuts.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the annual Jackson Hole central banking conference signaled a dovish stance, raising market expectations for a rate cut in September.

In his speech, Powell stated that the downside risks to employment outweigh the upside risks to inflation, and the Federal Reserve may need to adjust its policy stance. This is in sharp contrast to the hawkish tone of its July meeting.

Powell's pivot is seen as a response to political pressure from the Trump administration. Trump has long criticized the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates too quickly, believing it would hinder economic growth.

Multiple institutions expect that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September and continue to lower rates within the year. Guotai Junan Securities believes that the Federal Reserve will cut rates a maximum of 2 times this year.

The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved market sentiment towards risk assets. The prices of cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin rose after Powell's speech.

However, some analysts are cautious about Powell's pivot. Goldman Sachs believes that Powell is simply leaving room for a rate cut in September, but the magnitude and pace of the rate cut still remain uncertain and require further assessment of economic data.

Overall, Powell's dovish speech has triggered expectations for interest rate cuts, but there are still many variables in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path that the market needs to continue to monitor.