Recently, an important speech by Fed Chairman Powell has attracted widespread follow. In this speech, Powell conveyed some subtle and complex messages, which included concerns about the economic outlook and hinted at possible adjustments to monetary policy.

Powell pointed out that the current economic situation is multifaceted. On one hand, the fluctuations in inflation and employment data meet the conditions for adjusting interest rates, and this statement immediately triggered market expectations for a possible rate cut in September. However, Powell also expressed concerns about the economic conditions.

Regarding inflation, Powell emphasized that the extent of its rebound exceeded expectations and warned that the threat of inflation still exists. He specifically mentioned the potential impact of tariffs on inflation, as well as the potential risks posed by more persistent inflation.

In terms of the job market, although the overall unemployment rate remains at a historical low, the latest data shows a significant slowdown in job growth. Powell believes that while a sharp decline in the job market is unlikely, the cooling trend is worth following.

Powell has a cautious attitude towards the overall economic outlook. He likens the current economic situation to that of 2008, implying potential recession risks. Powell seems to have abandoned the expectation of a soft landing for the economy, pointing out that economic growth is weakening and there is a possibility of stagflation and recession.

Powell's speech had an immediate impact on the financial markets. The stock market generally rose, especially small-cap stocks performed prominently. The cryptocurrency market also saw an increase, which may be related to expectations of interest rate cuts. At the same time, gold, as a safe-haven asset, also rose, reflecting investors' concerns about the economic outlook.

Overall, Powell's speech highlighted the complexity of the current economic situation. On one hand, the expectation of interest rate cuts has brought about a sense of optimism in the market; on the other hand, concerns about economic downside risks cannot be ignored. This contradictory signal renders the future direction of the economy and policy fraught with uncertainty.