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The Dow Theory, as the cornerstone of Technical Analysis, was established by Charles Dow, the founder of the Wall Street Journal, at the end of the 19th century. This theory not only laid the foundation for modern Technical Analysis and trend trading but also demonstrated its universality in diverse financial markets, functioning across traditional stocks to the emerging field of Crypto Assets.
The core of Dow Theory lies in its profound insight into the nature of the market. It posits that the market is a comprehensive aggregation of information, where all potential factors that could influence prices—whether macroeconomic data, corporate fundamentals, policy adjustments, interest rate changes, inflation expectations, geopolitical events, or investor sentiment and capital flows—will ultimately be reflected in price fluctuations. This perspective emphasizes the importance of price as a carrier of information, suggesting that investors can indirectly grasp the overall market situation by focusing on price movements.
Furthermore, the Dow Theory reveals the collective intelligence of the market. Price formation is the result of countless market participants' games, where each trader makes decisions based on the information and views they possess, ultimately converging into a comprehensive market judgment. This collective decision-making mechanism often allows the market as a whole to exhibit greater intelligence than any individual analyst or institution.
It is worth noting that Dow Theory also emphasizes the foresight of the market. Prices not only reflect facts that have occurred but also contain expectations for the future. For example, in the Crypto Assets market, the potential impact of the Bitcoin halving event on supply is often reflected in prices before it actually occurs.
The core principles of Dow Theory, although born in traditional financial markets, are equally applicable in today's Crypto Assets world. It reminds us that whether analyzing Bitcoin, Ethereum, or other digital assets, focusing on price trends and market behavior may be more valuable than chasing a single piece of news. In an era of information explosion, Dow Theory provides investors with a perspective to simplify complex markets, helping them find direction amidst the overwhelming data.
Overall, the Dow Theory is not only a long-established analytical framework but also a philosophy for understanding the essence of the market. It encourages investors to focus on the big picture, respect market wisdom, and seek the truth in price movements. Whether in traditional finance or the emerging field of Crypto Assets, these insights can provide valuable guidance for investment decisions.