$13.8 billion Bitcoin Options expiring on August 29! A battle between bulls and bears at the $114,000 level.

On August 29, Bitcoin (BTC) options with a total value of up to 13.8 billion USD will face a concentrated expiration, marking a critical battle in the Bull vs Bear Battle. Currently, the BTC price is struggling below 114,000 USD, with short positions increasing pressure, while long positions are attempting to defend the 112,000 USD support. This range-bound battle before the Settlement will be closely linked to the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and macroeconomic data.

Market Pressure Before Options Expiry

(Source: Deribit)

On August 21, BTC once fell to $112,100, setting a new six-week low, triggering a sell-off before expiration.

Currently, the total open interest for call options is $7.44 billion, which is higher than the $6.37 billion for put options, but the actual settlement results will depend on the price position at expiration.

Deribit remains the main battlefield, occupying 85% of the market share, followed by CME (7%) and OKX (3%).

Bull vs Bear Battle Focus: $114,000

Long positions dilemma: Only 12% of the call options have a strike price at or below $115,000, most are out of the money;

Short positions advantage: 21% of put option strike prices are at or above $115,000, mainly concentrated around $112,000.

This means that short positions will concentrate their firepower to suppress the price below $114,000 to ensure maximum settlement profits.

Deribit Five Potential Settlement Scenarios (Based on Current Price Range)

$105,000–$110,000: long positions lost 2.45 billion dollars

$110,100–$114,000: short positions net profit of 1.5 billion dollars

$114,100–$116,000: short positions net profit of 360 million USD

$116,100–$118,000: long positions net profit of 460 million dollars

$118,100–$120,000: long positions net profit of 1.1 billion USD

Conclusion: For the bulls to turn the tide, BTC must break through 116,000 USD before expiration, and the fiercest battle will take place at the 114,000 USD mark.

Macro and External Market Influences

Powell's speech: If he hints at interest rate cuts, it could boost risk assets including BTC; conversely, a hawkish stance will dampen market sentiment.

Initial jobless claims in the United States: higher than expected, increasing market bets on policy easing.

Tech Stock Pressure: Morgan Stanley warns that rising AI investment costs may weaken the buyback capacity of tech giants, potentially affecting the overall performance of risk assets.

Short-term Observation Highlights

Price defense: Is the support at $112,000 lost?

Breakthrough Opportunity: Can it rise above 114,000 USD before the Settlement?

Macroeconomic Catalysts: The Impact of Powell's Speech and the U.S. Stock Market Trends on BTC

Conclusion

The expiration of $13.8 billion in Bitcoin options will become the biggest storm eye in the market at the end of August. Both long positions and short positions are engaged in fierce competition around $114,000, while macroeconomic signals and global market sentiment will determine whether BTC will see a rebound or further correction on the settlement date. Investors need to closely monitor price thresholds and policy trends to flexibly adjust their positions.