Tonight, the global financial community will focus on Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole annual meeting. This highly anticipated speech could have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market, especially the trend of Ethereum (ETH).

Historical experience shows that if Powell's speech suggests a tendency towards loose monetary policy, such as interest rate cuts, risk assets like ETH may see significant increases. Conversely, if he maintains a tough stance and continues to support interest rate hikes, the market may experience brief fluctuations, but the likelihood of a significant decline is lower.

Recently, on-chain data shows that approximately 910,000 ETH have been unstaked, raising concerns in the market. However, this does not necessarily indicate a large-scale sell-off. Currently, borrowing costs have risen to their highest level of the year, nearing 18%, and the unstaking is more likely a measure taken by investors to avoid potential liquidation risks, rather than an intention to sell. In fact, less than 30% of the unstaked ETH has entered exchanges.

Meanwhile, institutional investors seem to be seizing the opportunity to increase their holdings of ETH. Observations show that two major institutions have purchased approximately 510,000 ETH in total over the past week. This large-scale buying behavior may reflect institutions' optimistic expectations for the future trend of ETH, especially if the Federal Reserve hints at adopting a more accommodative monetary policy.

From a broader market cycle perspective, the current ETH market may be in a stage of skepticism. This stage is usually accompanied by rebounds and feelings of doubt, followed by a possible phase of large-scale buying.

Investors should carefully assess the current market conditions, weighing the risks and potential rewards. Although the behavior of institutional investors may suggest a positive outlook for ETH, the inherent high volatility of the cryptocurrency market still requires investors to remain vigilant.

Tonight's speech will undoubtedly be a key factor influencing short-term market trends. Regardless of the outcome, investors should make decisions based on their risk tolerance and long-term investment goals.