0815 macro data drives Bitcoin's short-term direction, with long and short positions balancing again, maintaining a clear probability of oscillating within a range.

0815 Bitcoin Market Report ✅✅

Bitcoin experienced a sharp correction amidst high volatility after a favorable policy and a technical breakout, reaching a historic high of $124,500 before significantly retracing to the $117,000 range. The daily chart closed with a large bearish candlestick, indicating a fierce tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Subsequently, as on-chain selling pressure eased and some bullish funds entered the market, it rebounded slightly to the current vicinity of $119,000.

Due to the PPI data being higher than expected (compared to 3.3%), inflation rebounding, and the cooling of interest rate cut expectations, prices have quickly retreated, retesting the support in the $117,000 area at the CME gap. This volatility reflects strong support in the $116,000 to $118,000 range but also shows that bulls are losing momentum after breaking through $121,000. If the weekly close this week falls below $117,000, it may trigger a technical correction. On the daily level, prices have formed a "head and shoulders bottom" pattern in the $116,850 to $124,000 range, and the current price has fallen below the boundary of $119,500, potentially continuing the downward trend. If the pattern is confirmed, the downside target points to $113,000. Conversely, if prices stabilize with volume in the $118,500 resistance area, it may initiate a rebound towards the $120,000 target. If trading volume does not effectively increase, it may get stuck in a lower range between $116,000 and $118,500. Once the critical support of $116,000 is breached, caution should be exercised as it may retest the risk of $113,000 (200-day moving average defense level). Summary: The short-term direction depends on the breakout strength of the $118,500 resistance level; the macro environment is uncertain; before the market direction is unclear, it is recommended to prioritize monitoring the breakout signals in the $116,000 to $119,000 range, and follow the trend after the breakout.

💥 💥 Trading Suggestions: 1. After breaking through $118,500, take a light long position with a target of $120,000; if it drops below $116,000, short with a target of $113,000. 2. If the price rebounds to around $119,500, take a light short position with a target of $117,200, and set a stop loss at $121,000. 3. If the price drops below $116,800 and fills the lower shadow, consider taking a light short position near $117,200 with a target of $114,800.

Special reminder: This article is for reference only and should not be used as the basis for investment!!!

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