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Bitcoin Spring Festival gift coins market has risen for 5 consecutive years, with the highest returns by buying on New Year's Eve and selling on the eighth day.
Analysis of the "gift coins market" during the Spring Festival in the crypto market
As the Spring Festival approaches, the crypto market is also showing an upward trend, with a total market capitalization recovering to $968.81 billion, reversing the sideways trend of the past 3 months. Data shows that as of January 19, Bitcoin has increased by 14.01% in the last 7 days and has remained stable above the $20,000 mark for 5 consecutive days.
This article reviews the market data of Bitcoin during the Spring Festival over the past 5 years and statistically analyzes the performance of popular tokens during the Spring Festival over the past 3 years. The main findings are as follows:
In the past 5 years, Bitcoin has consistently shown a "gift coins market" during the Spring Festival, with a minimum increase of about 5% and a maximum exceeding 16%. It is highly likely that Bitcoin will experience a "gift coins market" this Spring Festival.
Buying Bitcoin on New Year's Eve yields the highest average return of 9.4% when sold on any subsequent day. If bought before the fourth day of the Lunar New Year, the average return also exceeds 6.7% on any subsequent day. However, if bought after the fifth day, the return drops significantly to below 2%, and the probability of loss increases markedly.
During the Spring Festival, the daily average maximum amplitude of Bitcoin is comparable to usual. Notably, the daily average maximum amplitude on the fourth day, the eleventh day, and the twelfth day of the lunar new year exceeds 7%, with significant daily fluctuations.
During the Spring Festival in 2019 and 2020, the proportion of profitable Bitcoin chips increased by about 15 percentage points. From the second to the fourth day of the new year, the growth of profitable chip proportion was particularly noticeable.
In the last 3 years, if you bought 10 popular assets at the opening price on New Year's Eve and sold them at the closing price on the sixth day of the new year, the average return rate was about 16.79%. If you bought at the opening price on New Year's Eve and sold at the closing price on the fourteenth day of the new year, the average return rate was about 20.01%. However, popular assets have high volatility, and some assets still carry the risk of losses during the Spring Festival.
Analysis of Bitcoin Performance During the Spring Festival
In the past 5 years, Bitcoin has shown fluctuating gains and losses in the 7 days leading up to New Year's Eve, but during the Spring Festival (from New Year's Eve to the 14th of the new year), it has increased year after year, with the "gift coins market" experiencing a minimum gain of about 5%. Notably, during the Spring Festival in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2022, the gains exceeded 10%, with the highest gain surpassing 16.5%.
From the perspective of the buying time, purchasing Bitcoin on New Year's Eve yields the highest average return rate of 9.4% when sold on any day thereafter. If bought before the fourth day of the lunar new year, the average return rate when sold on any subsequent day also exceeds 6.7%. However, if purchased after the fifth day, the return rate significantly drops to below 2%, and the probability of loss increases markedly.
In terms of selling time, regardless of which day was bought beforehand, the average return rate when selling on the fourth day of the Lunar New Year is the highest, at about 7.3%. The average return rates for selling on the fifth, sixth, and eighth days are also relatively high, at about 6.8%.
Overall, the trading strategy with the highest average return over the last 5 years is to buy at the opening price on New Year's Eve and sell at the closing price on the eighth day of the lunar new year, with an average return rate of about 13.3%.
However, investors should remain vigilant about the risk of high daily volatility during the Spring Festival. In the past 5 years, the average maximum daily volatility of Bitcoin during the Spring Festival has been 5.14%, which is comparable to normal levels. Among them, the maximum daily volatility exceeded 7% on the fourth day, the eleventh day, and the twelfth day of the year, indicating significant fluctuations.
In terms of profitable chips, during the Spring Festival in 2019 and 2020, the proportion of profitable chips for Bitcoin increased by about 15 percentage points. From the second to the fourth day of the new year, the growth of the proportion of profitable chips was particularly noticeable.
Analysis of Popular Tokens Performance During the Spring Festival
In addition to Bitcoin, this article also selects 10 popular token samples from recent times to analyze their performance during the Spring Festival over the past 3 years.
Data shows that if these popular tokens are bought at the opening price on New Year's Eve and sold at the closing price on the sixth day of the new year, the average return rate is about 16.79%. If bought at the opening price on New Year's Eve and sold at the closing price on the fourteenth day of the new year, the average return rate is about 20.01%.
Among them, MANA, GALA, SAND, and SHIB all achieved positive returns under the two trading modes mentioned above. However, ETH, HNT, SOL, XRP, CVX, and FXS experienced some losses. This indicates that the stability of the popular token "gift coins market" is not high, which may be related to its significant volatility.
Statistics show that the average daily maximum amplitude of these 10 popular token samples during the Spring Festival over the past 3 years is about 13.27%, which is approximately 2.5 times that of Bitcoin. Among them, the average daily maximum amplitude of FXS, GALA, and SAND exceeds 18%, significantly higher than other assets.
Overall, the volatility of popular tokens is significantly higher than that of Bitcoin, and the investment risks under its "gift coins market" may also be greater. Investors need to fully assess the risks and invest rationally when participating in the Spring Festival market.