Slept for 14 years! The Bitcoin "ancient whale" suddenly transferred 80,000 BTC, is the market going to collapse?

Last Friday, the cryptocurrency market stirred again as an ancient address that had been dormant for 14 years and held 80,000 Bitcoins was suddenly activated, instantly triggering market panic and causing a slight fall in Bitcoin prices. According to the analysis by Conor Grogan, a supervisor at the crypto exchange, these addresses may belong to an independent miner from 2011 who accumulated mining rewards from 180 blocks that year, once holding 200,000 Bitcoins, making him the fifth largest whale in Bitcoin history. This massive transfer worth billions of dollars has raised concerns in the market: does this signal an impending large-scale dumping, potentially triggering a "tsunami" in the cryptocurrency market?

1. Huge Profits and Potential Selling Pressure: Market Concerns

What makes the market most uneasy is that the holding cost of this batch of Bitcoin is only $1.76 per coin. With the current price at about $108,000, its unrealized gains reach an astonishing 61,000 times. Once this Whale chooses to sell, the impact on the market will be enormous. Looking back at the German government’s sale of 49,858 Bitcoins in 2024, it triggered months of market turbulence (with a maximum drop of 32%). If this ancient Whale chooses to cash out its 80,000 Bitcoins, the potential selling pressure could lead to even more severe market fluctuations.

Glassnode's data study in 2020 shows that there is only a 0.5% chance that Bitcoin that has not moved for ten years will re-enter market circulation, which leads to addresses holding coins for more than ten years (without any transfer records) being generally considered permanently lost. So, why do these "sleeping" Bitcoins suddenly awaken? Currently, there are three main versions widely circulating in the market:

Personal factors: A Chinese national with the surname Deng controls these 80,000 Bitcoins. He was previously sentenced to 16.5 years in prison for illegal fundraising and mining, losing the right to manage his assets during his sentence, and was released early this year through special channels.

Unexpected Recovery: An ancient miner unexpectedly found the hard drive that stored the private key.

Market Strategy: The super forces driving the recent rise of Bitcoin are acting in unison with a certain whale. They had accumulated a large amount of low-priced chips before the pump. This activation of Bitcoin aims to test market reactions and reduce the market's sensitivity to large fluctuations, preparing for the distribution of chips in the later stages.

2. Multi-party Analysis: The Intent to Dump is Not Obvious

From the current situation, the possibility of version three is the highest, mainly for two reasons: first, the Whale "accidentally" obtained 80,000 Bitcoins and only transferred them to a new Address without further operation, which aligns with the common security management behavior of large Bitcoin holders; second, after the news broke, the price in the secondary Bitcoin market only fell by 1.09%, and there were no signs of smart money trying to flee. These two points indicate that the intention of the Whale to dump in the short term is not obvious, and the super forces did not treat the sudden activation of the ancient Address as an uncontrollable factor.

The blockchain intelligence company Arkham also stated that on Thursday, Bitcoin worth $8.6 billion was transferred for the first time in 14 years, but there seems to be no signs of dumping. Arkham pointed out in an X post: "There are no signs that this whale is selling Bitcoin." They added that these eight transfers—each transferring 10,000 Bitcoin, taken from eight wallets that had not moved for over 14 years—might be due to the owner upgrading from the original traditional wallets to Native SegWit addresses, which are said to enhance security and reduce costs. Arkham referred to the Bitcoin transfer as "possibly related to" the wallet upgrade from a 1 address to a bc1q address.

Arkham also stated that all the Bitcoins were initially deposited into these wallets on April 2 or May 4 in 2011, and they have not been touched for over 14 years. The company added that these Bitcoins are now stored in eight new wallets, and since then, they have not been moved.

The blockchain research company 10x Research stated in an article on the same day that, while there is no clear evidence indicating that a large amount of Bitcoin is being prepared for sale, its analysis "has long suggested that early holders are gradually shifting towards ETF and corporate bond demand." This also implies that even early holders may choose a more robust asset allocation strategy rather than direct dumping.

3. Macroeconomic Policy Favorable: Supporting Bitcoin's Strength

In addition to the movements of whales, the macroeconomic policies of the United States also provide strong support for Bitcoin. On July 4, U.S. President Trump officially signed the "Big and Beautiful" Act, marking the implementation of a large-scale tax cut and fiscal spending plan. The passage of this act signifies that the Trump administration has completely abandoned its fiscal tightening goals and has instead restarted and expanded the fiscal expansion policies from his first term. It is worth noting that compared to the $2.43 trillion increase in the deficit brought by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act during Trump's first term, the "Big and Beautiful" Act is expected to lead to an increase in the federal fiscal deficit of up to $5 trillion, significantly expanding the scale.

Although the "Beautiful Act" may long-term push the U.S. debt towards a cliff, in the short term, it will make the individual income tax and estate tax reductions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent, increasing the standard deduction for single taxpayers by $1,000 and for married couples by $2,000 (until 2028), and exempting tips, interest fees, and taxes for some auto loan couples. These measures can increase residents' income, stimulate consumption, and boost the stock market in the short term, with effects comparable to direct cash distribution.

In addition to fiscal expansion, adjustments to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) in the banking system may serve as another potential major benefit. On June 25, 2025, the Federal Reserve released a draft for public comment regarding proposed amendments to the SLR rules, considering lowering the eSLR requirement for large banks from 5% to 3.5%, and potentially excluding low-risk assets such as U.S. Treasuries and central bank deposits from the leverage ratio calculation. According to Treasury Secretary Becerra's forecast, the adjustment of the SLR is expected to be completed in the summer (June to August), which is anticipated to free up approximately $2 trillion in balance sheet space for large U.S. banks and lower long-term U.S. Treasury yields by 30 to 50 basis points.

The current macroeconomic policy mix in the United States is very clear: the debt added by the "Beautiful Law" will be jointly borne by the banking system (through SLR adjustments) and the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" (mainly digesting short-term debt), while the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts will provide foundational liquidity support. This policy will operate smoothly in the short term and is expected to continue supporting the strength of risk assets such as U.S. stocks and Bitcoin.

IV. Technical Analysis and Market Reaction

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is still in a typical main upward wave stage, and short-term market noise only triggers intraday level wash trading fluctuations. Under the blessing of extreme collective consensus, there is no possibility of a deep adjustment for Bitcoin. It is expected that after a brief consolidation, the price will continue its upward trend. The long-term target remains at $127,600-137,500.

Although this massive transfer has attracted wider attention in the cryptocurrency industry, some people have taken a relaxed attitude towards it. The former Chinese billionaire Zhao Changpeng (CZ) stated: "I entered the cryptocurrency space too late." He added: "After seeing the whales casually transfer their crypto assets acquired for $0.1 in 2011."

However, Grogan raised a more concerning possibility. He stated that the $8.6 billion Bitcoin transfer was likely caused by a hacker attack, and if so, it could be the largest robbery in history. He mentioned in a post on X on Friday, "If this is true (again, I emphasize, I'm just speculating), this would be the biggest robbery in human history." This also serves as a reminder to the market to remain vigilant about any large movements.

Conclusion:

The awakening of ancient whales undoubtedly brings a sense of tension to the market, but from the current analysis of the bulls, their dumping intentions are not significant, and the favorable macro policies provide solid support for Bitcoin. Although the possibility of hacker attacks still needs to be vigilant, the market seems to have digested this news, and there has not been a large-scale panic dumping. After experiencing a brief fluctuation, Bitcoin is expected to continue its upward trend driven by multiple favorable factors. Investors should remain rational and closely monitor subsequent developments.